Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: August 7, 2024
The war between Russia and Ukraine has intensified with significant developments reported on August 7, 2024. Ukrainian forces have made notable advances into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, managing to penetrate Russian defenses and capture multiple settlements. This aggressive maneuver by Ukrainian forces has prompted a complex response from the Kremlin, balancing between acknowledging the severity of the situation and maintaining public morale. This article delves into the intricacies of the current conflict, examining the advances made by Ukrainian forces, the response from Russia, and the technological warfare that is shaping the battleground.
Ukrainian Advances in Kursk Oblast
Notable Progress and Geopolitical Implications
On August 7, Ukrainian forces confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian military’s mechanized operations have breached at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold, showcasing their strategic and tactical prowess. Geolocated footage from August 6 and 7 shows Ukrainian armored vehicles positioned along the 38K-030 route, approximately 10 kilometers from the international border.
Reports from Russian insiders claim that Ukrainian forces have seized around 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since the operation began on August 6. These advances include the capture of 11 settlements, such as Nikolaevo-Daryino, Darino, and Sverdlikovo, with Ukrainian troops operating within Lyubimovka, approximately eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border.
Strategic Routes and Key Locations
Russian sources indicate that Ukrainian forces are advancing along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway. By 1800 local time on August 7, Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway, engaging in combat on the outskirts of Korenovo and Sudzha. The Sudzha checkpoint and gas distribution station were also seized by Ukrainian forces, with geolocated imagery showing the capture of over 40 Russian prisoners of war (POWs).
Ukrainian Forces and Tactical Deployments
Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, reported that units from the Chechnya-based 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment have been deployed to the Sudzhenskyi Raion. The deployment is consistent with reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources that Chechen units have been operating in the Sudzha area for over a week. These Chechen units have reportedly suffered heavy losses in the Korenovo Raion due to Ukrainian attacks.
Kremlin’s Contradictory Response
Balancing Act by Russian Leadership
The Kremlin has responded to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast with mixed messaging. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukrainian forces of a “large-scale provocation” and instructed regional authorities to coordinate assistance in Kursk Oblast. Despite this, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov portrayed the situation as under control, claiming that Russian forces have stopped Ukraine’s advance and inflicted significant casualties.
Government and Military Coordination
Putin held meetings with key government and military officials, including Defense Minister Belousov and Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, to discuss the situation in Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) edited its initial reports to correct overly optimistic statements about the Ukrainian forces retreating, likely to avoid backlash from making demonstrably false claims.
Public and Financial Measures
Acting Head of Kursk Oblast, Alexey Smirnov, claimed that the situation is under Putin’s personal control, with several thousand civilians evacuated from the area. The Russian Ministry of Finance has allocated 1.8 billion rubles to assist Kursk Oblast residents in resettling. The Investigative Committee has also opened an investigation into the Ukrainian “provocation.”
Criticism from Russian Milbloggers
Focus on Military Command Failures
Several Russian milbloggers have criticized the military command for not detecting or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast. Complaints centered around the military command’s lack of concern about Ukrainian force accumulations, unrealistic confidence in Russian defenses, and false reports about the situation. Prominent milbloggers called for the punishment of ineffective commanders and liars within the military command.
Acknowledgment of Ukrainian Technological Advances
Some milbloggers acknowledged the Ukrainian army’s successful use of first-person view (FPV) drones to down Russian helicopters. The adaptation and innovation in drone capabilities by Ukrainian forces indicate a technological edge that could hinder Russian military operations.
Technological Warfare
Ukrainian Drone Capabilities
Ukrainian forces have successfully used FPV drones to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast. This marks the first time Ukrainian special forces have employed an FPV drone to strike a helicopter. Footage shows the drone striking the rear propeller of the Mi-28, forcing it to land safely. Additionally, Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter over the Kursk-Sumy Oblast border area, although the means used were not specified.
Implications for Russian Military Operations
The use of relatively inexpensive and widely available drones to target expensive Russian helicopters and drones could significantly impact Russian short- and medium-range strike capabilities. This technological innovation by Ukrainian forces could offset Russia’s current material advantages, affecting the overall dynamics of the conflict.
Future Prospects and Military Assessments
Ukrainian Military Strategy
Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), assessed that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months. Budanov emphasized that Ukrainian troops would continue proactive tactical counterattacks, suggesting that the Ukrainian military will not simply wait for the Russian offensive to lose momentum.
Russian Military Constraints
ISW’s assessment aligns with Budanov’s view, indicating that Russian forces are currently committing the breadth of their capabilities to ongoing operations, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian military’s willingness to accept high material losses in relatively small sectors of the front could eventually lead to a culmination of their offensive efforts.
Humanitarian Concerns
Torture of Ukrainian POWs
Danielle Bell, Head of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), stated that Russia has tortured 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Russian detention. Bell’s statements highlight the systematic nature of these war crimes, constituting violations of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
International and Domestic Reactions
The torture of Ukrainian POWs has drawn significant international condemnation. Reports from the HRMMU and other organizations are consistent with longstanding assessments about Russia’s systematic violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in occupied Ukraine and towards Ukrainian POWs.
Political and Legal Developments
Moldovan Election Controversy
The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced that it would not register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the October 2024 presidential election and referendum. The CEC cited issues with the bloc’s registration documents and the involvement of individuals on international restrictive lists, including EU-sanctioned Moldovan opposition politician Ilan Shor.
Sentencing of Russian Milblogger
A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the “Moscow Calling” Telegram channel, to six and a half years in prison for publishing “fake” information about the Russian military. Kurshin’s arrest and sentencing appear to be a move to encourage self-censorship among the wider ultranationalist milblogger community.
Military Campaigns and Frontline Developments
Eastern Ukraine
Limited positional engagements continued in northern Kharkiv Oblast on August 7, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian forces are deploying additional manpower and conducting counterattacks near Hlyboke and Vovochansk. Russian forces are reportedly using TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems in this area.
Luhansk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, engaging in multiple locations but with no confirmed changes to the frontline. The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting in several areas, including northeast of Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces advanced in the Siversk direction, with geolocated footage indicating recent progress north of Bilohorivka and northwest of Rozdolivka. Ukrainian forces retook limited positions near Chasiv Yar, while fighting continued in various locations, including Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Southern Axis and Supporting Efforts
Zaporizhia Oblast
Positional fighting continued near Robotyne and Verbove, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in east bank Kherson Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.
Crimean Incident
Footage posted by a local Crimean Telegram channel showed a fire near Oktyabyrske Airfield, reportedly following explosions in the area. Additional reporting of Ukrainian strikes in the area has not been observed.
Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian Drone Strikes
Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful large-scale Shahed drone strike against Ukrainian rear areas on the night of August 6 to 7. Ukrainian forces shot down all 30 drones, which targeted multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, and Vinnytsia.
Ballistic Missile Interception
The Sumy Oblast Administration reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ballistic missile over Sumy Oblast on the night of August 7.
Mobilization and Force Generation
Russian Social Support
Russian authorities continue to portray themselves as providing adequate social support to soldiers who fought in Ukraine and their relatives. The MoD claims to have paid 98 percent of promised lump sum payments to the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
Recruitment Efforts
Russian Army Combat Reserve (BARS) units continue recruitment efforts, promising high salaries and lump sum payouts for the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment.
Technological Adaptations
Robotic Systems
The Russian MoD claimed to have delivered over 700 robotic systems to Russian forces in Ukraine since the start of 2024 and plans to deliver an additional 2,500 systems by the end of the year.
Belarus-Iran Military Cooperation
Strengthening Ties
Belarus and Iran continue to pursue increased economic, military, and technical cooperation, with Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Commander Major General Andrei Lukyanovich meeting with Iranian military officials to discuss deepening relations.
FAQs
What is the significance of Ukrainian advances into Kursk Oblast?
Ukrainian advances into Kursk Oblast represent a significant strategic and psychological victory, showcasing the ability of Ukrainian forces to penetrate deep into Russian territory and challenge Russian defenses.
How has the Kremlin responded to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast?
The Kremlin’s response has been contradictory, balancing between acknowledging the severity of the situation and maintaining public morale. Russian officials have accused Ukrainian forces of a provocation while claiming that the situation is under control.
What role do FPV drones play in the conflict?
FPV drones have become a crucial technological innovation for Ukrainian forces, allowing them to target expensive Russian helicopters and drones, thereby hindering Russian military operations and conserving Ukrainian air defense interceptors.
What are the humanitarian concerns related to the conflict?
The torture of Ukrainian POWs by Russian authorities constitutes a significant humanitarian concern, drawing international condemnation and highlighting systematic violations of international human rights and humanitarian law.
How has the conflict affected political and legal developments in Moldova?
The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission’s decision not to register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the upcoming presidential election highlights the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict and the influence of Russian-backed entities.
Conclusion
The current phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, marked by significant Ukrainian advances into Kursk Oblast and the Kremlin’s contradictory response, underscores the complex dynamics of modern warfare. Technological innovations, such as the use of FPV drones, are shaping the battlefield, while humanitarian concerns and political developments further complicate the situation. As the conflict continues to evolve, the international community remains closely watchful, with the potential for further escalation and significant geopolitical repercussions.
